Bush and the NIE

The National Intelligence Estimate, entitled "The Terrorist Threat to US Homeland", was released this week. As could be expected, the White House and presidential candidates all had self serving assessments. Is it possible, especially with a document filled with "likely's" and "maybe's", to arrive at an unbiased conclusion? Let's take a look.

In his weekly radio address on Saturday, Bush cited the passage, "greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al Qaeda to attack the U.S. homeland". The report does also state that specific plots have been thwarted, although it does not elaborate.

But it also states, "the group [al-Qa'ida] has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safe haven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership." This seems like yet more evidence that the Administration has failed to focus on the real problem, in favor of the Iraq debacle.

Furthermore, the report states, "al-Qa’ida will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the Homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups. Of note, we assess that al-Qa’ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack
the Homeland." This is an organization that didn't exist prior to our invasion of Iraq. We didn't create it, but we enabled it.

So, are we, as Senator Clinton asserts, "safer"? Since 9/11, Al-Qa'ida activity is in evidence in Spain, Britain, and the Middle East. Not so far in the US. This says something, at least. But again, Mr. Bush: "we've strengthened security at borders and vital infrastructure like power plants and airports and subways." Yet these are exactly the kinds of areas in which the Bush Adiministration has consistently recieved failing grades. How can we really feel secure when we see evidence on a regular basis of how easy our "security" is to breach? Remember the 12 year old who not once, but multiple times was able to smuggle contraband aboard a plane? Just to see if he could do it?

So is there a solution? Should we look to the Dems to lead on this issue? Senator Obama says, "It is deeply troubling that nearly six years after 9/11, Al Qaeda maintains a safe haven, an intact leadership and the capability to plan further attacks". While this is true, his only solution is "to get out of Iraq, because you can’t win a war when you’re on the wrong battlefield". Unfortunately, this conflicts with an earlier NIE that said chaos would increase dramatically, were we to withdraw. Senator Clinton says, "Our involvement in Iraq continues to erode our position. It has damaged our alliances, and it has limited our ability to respond to real threats.” Once again, a true assessment of the current situation, but what real solution?

While the Iraq conflict may be about bigger things than our presence at this point, don't we still have a responsibility, in as far as we created the environment? At what point do intra-Iraqi conflics become their business and not ours? There is no easy answer, because our interests do not coincide with the interest of any Iraqi faction. Iraq is a manufactured country, with no real historical alliance among its disparate population. Our best bet is a federated Iraq, with equal share of oil revenues, but this is not going to happen.

The upshot is that this is an unbelieveably complex problem that requires real leadership, not political soundbytes. Add in other problems, at least equally if not more serious, like disease and global warming, and you're talking about the need for a real leader. Is that leader to be found among the current crop of presidential contenders?

One thing for sure is that President Bush has yet again failed to see the need for realism in this crisis, and has instead continued to justify his unwavering approach to foreign policy. As a result, Al-Qa'ida is at its strongest since 9/11. The Bush approach isn't working. Who out there has a plan?